Last reviewed: 2026-10-07. Maintained by FutureWatchLog (미래관찰일지) from regulator records and SEC filings. Each row shows the date it was last checked; rows change only when a primary source changes.
Who is actually closest to the finish line? This page tracks the regulatory gate each company must pass — FAA type certification for air taxis, launch licensing and national-security launch eligibility for rockets, and nuclear design approval for small modular reactors — using only dated, source-confirmed events.
Quick status table
| Industry | Company | Regulator · gate | Where they are | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air taxi | Joby (JOBY) | FAA · type certification (5 stages) | Stage 5 underway: Joby 20% / FAA 10%; Stage 4 at 83% / 77% (as of 2026-07-31) | 2026-10-07 |
| Air taxi | Archer (ACHR) | FAA · type certification (4 phases) | Phase 3 closed; working in final Phase 4 (company, 2026-05-11) | 2026-10-07 |
| Air taxi | EHang (EH) | CAAC (China) · TC → PC → OC | All three certificates held; commercial passenger flights in China | 2026-10-07 |
| Space | Rocket Lab Neutron (RKLB) | First launch · FAA launch licence · NSSL | Not yet launched; pad delivery targeted Q4 2026 (10-Q, 2026-08-10) | 2026-10-07 |
| Space | SpaceX Starship | FAA · launch licence modifications | Licence modifications in review (Pacific landing areas, Cape SLC-37) | 2026-10-07 |
| Nuclear | Oklo (OKLO) | NRC · licence application / DOE authorization | NRC pre-application; DOE path 2 of 5 steps (company) | 2026-10-07 |
| Nuclear | NuScale (SMR) | NRC · design approval | 77 MWe design: Standard Design Approval (2025-05-29) | 2026-10-07 |
| Nuclear | i-SMR (Korea) | NSSC (Korea) · standard design approval | Application received 2026-02-27; document review | 2026-10-07 |
AIR TAXI (eVTOL)
Air taxis — FAA & CAAC type certification
Joby Aviation (JOBY)
Final stage (Stage 5 “Show & Verify”) underway — not yet type certified (FutureWatchLog count, Q2 2026 letter)
- As of 2026-07-31, Joby reported Stage 4 at 83% complete on its side and 77% accepted by the FAA; Stage 5 at 20% / 10%. Stages 4 and 5 run in parallel.
- Joby notes completion percentages “may fluctuate” as documents are revised and resubmitted.
- 2026-03-11 — first FAA-conforming aircraft flew (aircraft used for “for credit” testing).
- Next to watch: Q3 shareholder letter percentages; the FAA side of Stage 5.
Archer Aviation (ACHR)
Final phase (Phase 4) underway — not yet type certified
- Archer describes the FAA process as four phases and says it was the first eVTOL maker to close Phase 3 (Q1 2026 letter, 2026-05-11).
- 2026-02 — final FAA acceptance of 100% of its Means of Compliance (company).
- The Q2 2026 letter (2026-08-10) gave no new phase update.
- Next to watch: Phase 4 “for credit” testing progress in the Q3 letter.
EHang (EH)
Certified in China (CAAC): TC → PC → OC complete
- 2023-10-13 — Type Certificate for EH216-S (CAAC).
- 2024-04-07 — Production Certificate.
- 2025-03-30 — first Air Operator Certificates (Guangzhou, Hefei); ticketed sightseeing flights.
- No FAA type-certification program for EH216-S has been publicly confirmed.
- Next to watch: Scale of commercial operations beyond initial sites.
Note: Joby counts five stages and Archer four — the percentages are not directly comparable.
SPACE
Space — first flight, launch licensing & national-security eligibility
Rocket Lab — Neutron (RKLB)
Not yet launched — first launch timing “narrowing” for end of 2026
- Q2 10-Q (2026-08-10): delivery to the launch pad targeted for Q4 2026; “the window for an end-of-year launch date is narrowing.”
- NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1: Neutron was “on-ramped” with a $5M capabilities-assessment task order (company, 2025-05-08). No Lane 1 mission reported yet.
- FAA launch licence (Part 450) for Neutron: status not disclosed in filings.
- Electron (in service): Mahia launches licensed by New Zealand; Wallops LC-2 licensed for 8 launches per year (10-K).
- Next to watch: Neutron first launch date; any FAA licence disclosure.
SpaceX — Starship (SpaceX)
Flying under an FAA licence; modifications in environmental review
- 2026-05-22 — Flight 12 launched; the FAA closed the mishap investigation on 2026-07-13.
- Pacific contingency landing areas: final environmental assessment (Federal Register, 2026-09-04).
- Cape Canaveral SLC-37: environmental review started 2026-09-29; comments due 2026-10-14.
- Next to watch: Flight 13 and the SLC-37 decision.
NUCLEAR (SMR)
Small modular reactors — design approval & licensing
Oklo — Aurora (OKLO)
NRC: pre-application · DOE authorization is the primary path for Aurora-INL
- 2022-01 — NRC denied the 2020 Aurora licence application “for failure to provide information” (refiling allowed).
- Now in NRC pre-application; one topical report (design criteria) approved with conditions.
- Aurora-INL: DOE authorization pursued as primary pathway; company reports 2 of 5 DOE steps approved.
- 2026-08-05 — Groves isotope test reactor reached criticality (DOE) — a low-power test reactor, not the Aurora powerhouse.
- Company target: first powerhouse in 2028 (“ambitious target”).
- Next to watch: Third DOE step; whether and when Oklo files with the NRC under the new Part 53 framework.
NuScale Power (SMR)
77 MWe design approved (Standard Design Approval) — no binding plant order yet
- 2023-01-19 — NRC certified the 50 MWe design (design certification rule, effective 2023-02-21).
- 2025-05-29 — NRC issued a Standard Design Approval for the 77 MWe US460 design — not a design certification.
- Revenue to date is engineering and licensing services; ENTRA1 and TVA arrangements are non-binding (10-Q).
- Next to watch: First binding module order.
i-SMR (Korea) (KHNP-led)
Standard design approval application received (2026-02-27)
- 170 MWe × 4 modules = 680 MWe pressurized light-water design (NSSC roadmap).
- NSSC received the application on 2026-02-27; part of the safety analysis was submitted before tests were complete (NSSC).
- July 2026 press reports: still in document review and supplementation.
- Next to watch: NSSC announcement that full review has started.
Frequently asked questions
Is Joby Aviation FAA certified yet?
No. As of FutureWatchLog's last check (2026-10-07), Joby has not received FAA type certification. Joby's Q2 2026 shareholder letter puts the final Stage 5 (“Show & Verify”) at 20% complete on Joby's side and 10% accepted by the FAA, with Stage 4 at 83% / 77%, as of 2026-07-31.
Is Archer Aviation FAA certified yet?
No. Archer describes the FAA process as four phases and said on 2026-05-11 that it had closed Phase 3 and was working in the final Phase 4. Its Q2 2026 letter (2026-08-10) gave no new phase update, per FutureWatchLog's review.
Can Joby's and Archer's certification percentages be compared?
Not directly. Joby reports five stages with percentages; Archer reports four phases without percentages. FutureWatchLog lists each in its own framework.
Which eVTOL is already certified?
EHang's EH216-S holds a Type Certificate (2023-10-13), Production Certificate and Air Operator Certificates from China's CAAC. Neither Joby nor Archer holds an FAA type certificate as of 2026-10-07.
Has Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket launched?
Not as of 2026-10-07. Rocket Lab's 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 targets pad delivery in Q4 2026 and says the window for an end-of-year launch date is narrowing. Filings do not disclose an FAA launch licence for Neutron.
Does Oklo have NRC approval for its reactor?
No reactor licence. The NRC denied Oklo's 2020 Aurora application in January 2022 (refiling allowed); Oklo is now in NRC pre-application and pursuing U.S. Department of Energy authorization as the primary path for its first Idaho unit, according to its 10-Q (2026-08-07).
Is NuScale's 77 MWe SMR design certified by the NRC?
It received a Standard Design Approval on 2025-05-29, which is not a design certification. The NRC design certification (2023) covers NuScale's earlier 50 MWe design.
How to read this page
- Approval ≠ revenue. A design approval or type certificate is one gate; production, operating approvals and binding customer contracts come after.
- Company-reported vs regulator-confirmed. Where only a company filing says it, the row says so.
- Not comparable across industries. Each gate is defined by its own regulator.
Methodology
FutureWatchLog (미래관찰일지) reads regulator records (FAA, NRC, CAAC, Korea’s NSSC, the Federal Register) and SEC filings, and lists only dated events confirmed in those documents. When a source cannot be read directly, the row names the document it came from. This page is not investment advice.
Korean-language video analysis: 미래관찰일지 on YouTube · Korean articles: futurewatchlog.com/ko · SMR explainer (Korean): SMR 뜻 — 오클로·뉴스케일·i-SMR